【TED】电子游戏的变革性力量 | The transformative power of video games

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2020年1月28日15:48:00【TED】电子游戏的变革性力量 | The transformative power of video games已关闭评论 103 次浏览
【TED】电子游戏的变革性力量 | The transformative power of video games

世界人口的三分之一,整整26亿人会打电子游戏。这一庞大的互动网络,带来的机遇远不止娱乐。在这个有关游戏媒介未来的演讲中,企业家赫尔曼•纳鲁拉阐述了对游戏的新理解——游戏的能力可以创造新世界、将人们联系起来并塑造经济。

Hello. My name is Herman, and I've always been struck by how the most important, impactful, tsunami-like changes to our culture and our society always come from those things that we least think are going to have that impact.

大家好。我叫赫尔曼。我一直在思考为何这世上最重要、最具影响力、最能翻天覆地,改变我们文化和社会总是来自于那些我们不认为会产生影响的事情。

I mean, as a computer scientist, I remember when Facebook was just image-sharing in dorm rooms, and depending upon who you ask, it's now involved in toppling elections. I remember when cryptocurrency or automated trading were sort of ideas by a few renegades in the financial institutions in the world for automated trading, or online, for cryptocurrency, and they're now coming to quickly shape the way that we operate. And I think each of you can recall that moment where one of these ideas felt like some ignorable, derisive thing, and suddenly, oh, crap, the price of Bitcoin is what it is. Or, oh, crap, guess who's been elected.

作为一个计算机科学家,我记得当脸书还只是个大学寝室发家的图片分享网站,而现在,基于你问谁,脸书已经可以左右我们的大选。我记得当加密货币和自动交易还只是小众人的想法存在金融行业,自动交易行业,和网络上。而它们现在正加速塑形着我们的办事习惯。你们每个人都应该记得一种时刻,当一个想法看起来一无是处,但突然,它发展得正似比特币价值般突飞猛进。你再想想,谁当选了美国总统?

The reality is that, you know, from my perspective, I think that we're about to encounter that again. And I think one of the biggest, most impactful changes in the way we live our lives, to the ways we're educated, probably even to how we end up making an income, is about to come not from AI, not from space travel or biotech -- these are all very important future inventions -- but in the next five years, I think it's going to come from video games.

现实是,在我看来,我们将会再次遇到这情况。我认为对我们生活,对我们如何受教育,对我们如何挣工资有着最大影响的并非来自于人工智能技术,并非是太空旅行或者生物科技,虽然这些都是非常重要的科技,但在下五年,我认为最大影响来自于电子游戏。

So that's a bold claim, OK. I see some skeptical faces in the audience. But if we take a moment to try to look at what video games are already becoming in our lives today, and what just a little bit of technological advancement is about to create, it starts to become more of an inevitability. And I think the possibilities are quite electrifying. So let's just take a moment to think about scale.

好大的口气!我知道。我也看到了观众中质疑的脸。但让我们试着看看电子游戏当下已变成了什么,以及一点点的技术进步将会创造出什么,我们会发现电子游戏的影响是越来越不可避免的。我认为它的可能性穷乎其穷。让我们想想它的规模。

I mean, there's already 2.6 billion people who play games. And the reality is that's a billion more than five years ago. A billion more people in that time. No religion, no media, nothing has spread like that. And there's likely to be a billion more when Africa and India gain the infrastructure to sort of fully realize the possibilities of gaming. But what I find really special is -- and this often shocks a lot of people -- is that the average age of a gamer, like, have a guess, think about it. It's not six, it's not 18, it's not 12. It's 34. [Average age of an American gamer] It's older than me. And that tells us something, that this isn't entertainment for children anymore. This is already a medium like literature or anything else that's becoming a fundamental part of our lives.

现今已经有着26亿人玩电子游戏。比五年前,多了十亿。五年内增加了十亿人。没有任何一个宗教和媒体可以如此大规模发展。我们可以展望下一个十亿的增加,当非洲和印度的科技发展到位,可以充分发挥电子游戏的可能性。但我感到十分特别的是,这常常会惊到他人,是玩家的平均年龄。你们猜一猜。并不是六岁,不是18岁,也不是12岁。是34岁。[美国玩家平均年龄]我都比这年轻。这也告诉我们,游戏不再是儿童的娱乐。它已成为像文学一般的媒介,是我们生活不可或缺的一部分。

One stat I like is that people who generally picked up gaming in the last sort of 15, 20 years generally don't stop. Something changed in the way that this medium is organized. And more than that, it's not just play anymore, right? You've heard some examples today, but people are earning an income playing games. And not in the obvious ways. Yes, there's e-sports, there's prizes, there's the opportunity to make money in a competitive way. But there's also people earning incomes modding games, building content in them, doing art in them. I mean, there's something at a scale akin to the Florentine Renaissance, happening on your kid's iPhone in your living room. And it's being ignored.

我很喜欢的一组数据显示了在过去十五到二十年中开始打游戏的人们不会放弃这个喜好。在这一媒介发展的途中,有些东西变了。这已经大于游戏本身,人们不再仅仅是玩游戏了。你听到过这些例子,人们现在通过打游戏挣工资。还不是通过直接的游戏竞技。是的,现今有电子竞技,有奖金,有很多机会可以让人们从竞赛中挣钱。但是也有很多人正在游戏中模组,设计桥段,在游戏中做艺术,通过这些得到薪酬。这种规模堪比佛罗伦萨文艺复兴,而这一切可能就发生在你的客厅里孩子正玩弄的iPhone中。它被很多人忽略了。

Now, what's even more exciting for me is what's about to happen. And when you think about gaming, you're probably already imagining that it features these massive, infinite worlds, but the truth is, games have been deeply limited for a very long time in a way that kind of we in the industry have tried very hard to cover up with as much trickery as possible. The metaphor I like to use, if you'd let me geek out for a moment, is the notion of a theater. For the last 10 years, games have massively advanced the visual effects, the physical immersion, the front end of games. But behind the scenes, the actual experiential reality of a game world has remained woefully limited. I'll put that in perspective for a moment. I could leave this theater right now, I could do some graffiti, get in a fight, fall in love. I might actually do all of those things after this, but the point is that all of that would have consequence. It would ripple through reality -- all of you could interact with that at the same time. It would be persistent. And those are very important qualities to what makes the real world real.

现在,让我更加兴奋的是未来还会发生什么。当你想到游戏,你可能已经在想象游戏中无限的世界,但其实,游戏在很长一段时间中,都被限制了,而我们这些业界人士一直努力用各种伎俩把这一事实掩盖。我喜欢用一个比喻,让我变身极客稍许卖弄一下,就是剧场的概念。在过去的十年中,游戏的视觉效果得到了很大的提升,包括前端效果和视觉冲击。但在幕后,游戏世界的经验实在仍然被限制。我来解释一下。我现在可以离开这个舞台。我可以去涂鸦,可以打架,可以坠入爱河。我可能真的会在这演出之后做这些事,但是,这些事会有后果。这些事会改变我的现实,所有人可以在同一时间做出反应。它的影响是持续性的。这也就是真实世界真实的重要原因。

Now, behind the scenes in games, we've had a limit for a very long time. And the limit is, behind the visuals, the actual information being exchanged between players or entities in a single game world has been deeply bounded by the fact that games mostly take place on a single server or a single machine. Even The World of Warcraft is actually thousands of smaller worlds. When you hear about concerts in Fortnite, you're actually hearing about thousands of small concerts. You know, individual, as was said earlier today, campfires or couches. There isn't really this possibility to bring it all together. Let's take a moment to just really understand what that means. When you look at a game, you might see this, beautiful visuals, all of these things happening in front of you.

但在游戏幕后,我们很长一段时间都被限制了。在视觉效果背后,在单个游戏世界中玩家之间或物体之间交换的实际信息已经被一个事实所深深束缚,即游戏大多发生在一台服务器或一台机器上。就算是“魔兽世界”,也是几千个小世界.当你在“堡垒之夜”中看到一场演唱会时你其实看到的是几千场小演唱会。这些全都是独自存在的,无论是游戏里面的篝火还是沙发。我们没有什么机会将这些世界联合到一起。让我们来想一想这是什么意思。当你在玩一个游戏时,你可能会看到美好的视觉效果,许多事在你眼前发生。

But behind the scenes in an online game, this is what it looks like. To a computer scientist, all you see is just a little bit of information being exchanged by a tiny handful of meaningful entities or objects. You might be thinking, "I've played in an infinite world." Well it's more that you've played on a treadmill. As you've been walking through that world, we've been cleverly causing the parts of it that you're not in to vanish, and the parts of it in front of you to appear. A good trick, but not the basis for the revolution that I promised you in the beginning of this talk.

但是每一个网上游戏的幕后,看起来却是这样的。一个计算机科学家看到的仅仅是一点点信息交换于一小撮对象或物品。你可能在想,“我正在探索一个无限的世界。”其实,你仅仅只是在跑步机上前进。在你探索游戏世界时,我们很聪明地使你没到的地方消失不见,而你正处在的地方显示出来。这是一个不错的小伎俩,但是这并不能成为我刚刚向你们保证的游戏革命的基石。

But the reality is, for those of you that are passionate gamers and might be excited about this, and for those of you that are afraid and may not be, all of that is about to change. Because finally, the technology is in place to go well beyond the limits that we've previously seen. I've dedicated my career to this, there are many others working on the problem -- I'd hardly take credit for it myself, but we're at the point now where we can finally do this impossible hard thing of weaving together thousands of disparate machines into single simulations that are convenient enough to not be one-offs, but to be buildable by anybody. And to be at the point where we can start to experience those things that we can't yet fathom.

但我想告诉你们之中对此非常兴奋的狂热玩家和感到些许恐惧或毫无反应的人们这一切将要改变。因为,我们的科技终于到位了,可以跨域我们之前遇到的瓶颈。这是我的事业,还有其他的战友一起在研究这个,我不想把这个功劳加在我身上,但我们现在终于可以开始做以前我们认为完全不可能的事:把几千台独立的机器联合到一个模拟世界中,这个模拟世界并非由一方所控制并建造的,而是可以被所有人建造的。在那时,我们会开始经历我们现在还无法想象的事。

Let's just take a moment to visualize that. I'm talking about not individual little simulations but a massive possibility of huge networks of interaction. Massive global events that can happen inside that. Things that even in the real world become challenging to produce at that kind of scale. And I know some of you are gamers, so I'm going to show you some footage of some things that I'm pretty sure I'm allowed to do, from some of our partners. TED and me had a back-and-forth on this. These are a few things that not many people have seen before, some new experiences powered by this type of technology. I'll just [take] a moment to show you some of this stuff.

让我们想一下。我说的并不是单独的模拟世界,而是一个巨大的交互网络。全球性事件可以发生在其中。这些事在现实世界中的可做不到那么大的规模。我知道台下的一些人是游戏玩家,我想给你们看一些视频,这些来自于我们的合作伙伴我和TED讨论了很久了。这些很多人都没见过,它们是由当今科技支持的新游戏体验。我现在给你们看看。

This is a single game world with thousands of simultaneous people participating in a conflict. It also has its own ecosystem, its own sense of predator and prey. Every single object you see here is simulated in some way. This is a game being built by one of the biggest companies in the world, NetEase, a huge Chinese company. And they've made an assistant creative simulation where groups of players can cocreate together, across multiple devices, in a world that doesn't vanish when you're done. It's a place to tell stories and have adventures. Even the weather is simulated. And that's kind of awesome.

这是一个单独的游戏世界,其中,数千人同时参与了一场冲突。这个世界有独自的生态系统,自主分类出的捕食者和猎物。你在这里看到的每一个物体都是以某种方式模拟出来的。这个游戏是世界上最大的公司之一,网易,一个中国公司。他们创建了一个创造性辅助模拟世界,很多玩家组可以用不同的机器一起创造一个游戏世界,这个世界不会在你创立完后消失。在这个世界中,人们可以讲故事,可以畅游冒险。游戏中的天气也是模拟的。这太棒了。

And this is my personal favorite. This is a group of people, pioneers in Berlin, a group called Klang Games, and they're completely insane, and they'll love me for saying that. And they found a way to model, basically, an entire planet. They're going to have a simulation with millions of non-player characters and players engaging. They actually grabbed Lawrence Lessig to help understand the political ramifications of the world they're creating.

这是我最喜欢的。一群在柏林的游戏玩家,他们叫做KlangGames他们特别疯狂,他们也喜欢我这样称呼他们。他们找到了一种方式来建模整个星球。他们将要建造一个模拟世界,有百万个非玩家和玩家角色共同创造。他们还邀请了劳伦斯·莱斯格来帮助他们认清他们所创建的世界的政治影响。

This is the sort of astounding set of experiences, well beyond what we might have imagined, that are now going to be possible. And that's just the first step in this technology.

这是一种令人震惊的经历,远超过我们所想象的,而如今成为了现实。这仅仅是这种科技的第一步。

So if we step beyond that, what happens? Well, computer science tends to be all exponential, once we crack the really hard problems. And I'm pretty sure that very soon, we're going to be in a place where we can make this type of computational power look like nothing. And when that happens, the opportunities …

所以若我们跨过那一步,什么会发生?计算机科学倾向于指数增长,在我们解决很难的问题后。我确定在很近的未来,我们会到达一个境界那时,这种计算机技术根本不算什么。那时,我们的机会穷乎其穷。

It's worth taking a moment to try to imagine what I'm talking about here. Hundreds of thousands or millions of people being able to coinhabit the same space. The last time any of us as a species had the opportunity to build or do something together with that may people was in antiquity. And the circumstances were less than optimal, shall we say. Mostly conflicts or building pyramids. Not necessarily the best thing for us to be spending our time doing. But if you bring together that many people, the kind of shared experience that can create … I think it exercises a social muscle in us that we've lost and forgotten.

花点时间想想我说的是什么。成百上千,百万的人可以栖息在在同一空间。上一次我们人类有机会大规模共同塑造还是在古典时代。而当时的环境可没如今那么完美。人类当时不是战火纷飞,就是在造金字塔。并不是我们应该花时间做的。但如果现在你可以组织起这么多人它创造出的共同体验,无法想象。我认为,它可以活动我们体内被忽略了很久的社会肌肉。

Going even beyond that, I want to take a moment to think about what it means for relationships, for identity. If we can give each other worlds, experiences at scale where we can spend a meaningful amount of our time, we can change what it means to be an individual. We can go beyond a single identity to a diverse set of personal identities. The gender, the race, the personality traits you were born with might be something you want to experiment differently with. You might be someone that wants to be more than one person. We all are, inside, multiple people. We rarely get the opportunity to flex that.

在这之上,我想谈谈这对于关系,对于身份的影响。如果我们能给彼此世界,给彼此经验,我们花大量的有意义时间,我们就能改变个体的意义。我们可以超越单一的身份,去拥抱更多元的个人身份。性别,种族,这些与生俱来的特征可以变成你可以尝试变化的。你可以成为有多重身份的人。在我们的内心深处,我们都是几个不同的人。而我们以前没有机会展示这些。

It's also about empathy. I have a grandmother who I have literally nothing in common with. I love her to bits, but every story she has begins in 1940 and ends sometime in 1950. And every story I have is like 50 years later. But if we could coinhabit, co-experience things together, that undiminished by physical frailty or by lack of context, create opportunities together, that changes things, that bonds people in different ways. I'm struck by how social media has amplified our many differences, and really made us more who we are in the presence of other people. I think games could really start to create an opportunity for us to empathize again. To have shared adversity, shared opportunity.

这也有关同理心。我的祖母我和她没有任何共同点。我爱她至深,但她讲的每一个故事都始于1940年代,终于1950年代而我的故事都发生在五十年后。但如果我们可以共同栖息共同体验,而不被物理上的隔阂或背景环境的缺失所阻碍,我们可以共同创造机会,这会改变很多事,它以不同的方式把人们联系在一起。我深刻地感受到社交媒体放大了人与人之间的不同,并可以让我们在他人面前展示真实的自己。而我相信游戏也会开始创建这样的机会,让我们可以拥有同理心。同甘共苦,分享机会。

I mean, statistically, at this moment in time, there are people who are on the opposite sides of a conflict, who have been matchmade together into a game and don't even know it. That's an incredible opportunity to change the way we look at things.

数据上来看,在这个时代身处对立战国的人们可能在一个网络游戏中匹配为战友而他们对此一无所知。这是一个非常棒的机会,让我们改变看待事物的方法。

Finally, for those of you who perhaps are more cynical about all of this, who maybe don't think that virtual worlds and games are your cup of tea. There's a reality you have to accept, and that is that the economic impact of what I'm talking about will be profound. Right now, thousands of people have full-time jobs in gaming. Soon, it will be millions of people. Wherever there's a mobile phone, there will be a job. An opportunity for something that is creative and rich and gives you an income, no matter what country you're in, no matter what skills or opportunities you might think you have. Probably the first dollar most kids born today make might be in a game. That will be the new paper route, that will be the new opportunity for an income at the earliest time in your life.

现在,你们之中对这感到有些怀疑的人,你们可能觉得虚拟世界或者游戏并非是你们所喜欢的。但你们得接受一个事实,就是它的经济效益会是深远的。现在,上千人将游戏作为他们的全职工作,这个数字马上会上升至百万人。哪里有手机,哪里就有工作。这个机会充满着创新的机会,无论你身处何方,都可以有工资拿无论你觉得自己的资历和机会好不好。而现今出生的孩子们赚的的一块钱很有可能就是在游戏中。这将成为一个新的收入渠道,新的薪资来源在你非常年轻的时候。

So I kind of want to end with almost a plea, really, more than thoughts. A sense of, I think, how we need to face this new opportunity a little differently to some we have in the past. It's so hypocritical for yet another technologist to stand up on stage and say, "The future will be great, technology will fix it." And the reality is, this is going to have downsides. But those downsides will only be amplified if we approach, once again, with cynicism and derision, the opportunities that this presents. The worst thing that we could possibly do is let the same four or five companies end up dominating yet another adjacent space.

所以我想以一个恳求,而非一个想法来结束我的演讲。我们应该如何面对这个新的机会,我觉得应该和过去的我们有些不同。台上站着个科技人员告诉大家“未来是美好的,因为科技可以改变一切”这好像有一点虚伪。事实是,这个机会当然会有缺点,但是这些缺点会被放大若我们以犬儒主义和嘲笑的态度来面对它所带来的机会。我们可以做到最糟糕的就是让同样的四五个大公司再次垄断了一个产业空间。

Because they're not just going to define how and who makes money from this. The reality is, we're now talking about defining how we think, what the rules are around identity and collaboration, the rules of the world we live in. This has got to be something we all own, we all cocreate.

因为他们不只会定义如何以及谁能从中赚钱。事实是,我们现在谈论的将会主导我们的思维,影响我们对于身份和合作定下的条规,改变这个世界的秩序。这些一定要成为所有人共同拥有的,共同创造的。

So, my final plea is really to those engineers, those scientists, those artists in the audience today. Maybe some of you dreamed of working on space travel. The reality is, there are worlds you can build right here, right now, that can transform people's lives. There are still huge technological frontiers that need to be overcome here, akin to those we faced when building the early internet. All the technology behind virtual worlds is different. So, my plea to you is this. Let's engage, let's all engage, let's actually try to make this something that we shape in a positive way, rather than once again have be done to us.

所以我最终的请求面向观众中所有的工程师所有的科学家,所有的艺术家。也许你们畅想过太空之旅。但事实是,在这里,在这一时刻就有很多世界等待着你们的创造,它们会永远地改变人们的生活。仍有巨大的技术前沿需要我们去攻克掌握,就像早期建立互联网的时候一样。建立虚拟世界的科技是非常独特的。我的恳求就是,让我们都参与进来,参与进来!让我们把它变成一件我们可以积极创造的事,而不是再次变得被动。

Thank you.

谢谢。

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