A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.文章源自：力哥爱英语（ienglish521.com）力哥爱英语-https://ienglish521.com/2497.html
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.文章源自：力哥爱英语（ienglish521.com）力哥爱英语-https://ienglish521.com/2497.html
We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”文章源自：力哥爱英语（ienglish521.com）力哥爱英语-https://ienglish521.com/2497.html
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.文章源自：力哥爱英语（ienglish521.com）力哥爱英语-https://ienglish521.com/2497.html
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. 文章源自：力哥爱英语（ienglish521.com）力哥爱英语-https://ienglish521.com/2497.html
在发现澳大利亚的黑天鹅之前，欧洲人认为天鹅都是白色的，黑天鹅曾经是他们言谈和写作中的惯用语，用来指不可能存在的事物，但是当第一只黑天鹅出现时，这个不可动摇的信念崩溃了，黑天鹅的存在，预示着不可预测的重大稀有事件，它们常常带来意料之外的重大冲击，但是人们总是视而不见，并且习惯于自己有限的生活经验和不堪一击的信念来解释它们，最终被现实击溃。文章源自：力哥爱英语（ienglish521.com）力哥爱英语-https://ienglish521.com/2497.html
下载信息已被隐藏，请在下方输入 验证码 查看隐藏内容文章源自：力哥爱英语（ienglish521.com）力哥爱英语-https://ienglish521.com/2497.html
关注微信公众号，回复“验证码”，获取验证码。 在微信里搜索“力哥爱英语小站”或扫码关注。 文章源自：力哥爱英语（ienglish521.com）力哥爱英语-https://ienglish521.com/2497.html
⚠️ 取关用户无法收到验证码或任何消息，无需再次关注 ⚠️ 文章源自：力哥爱英语（ienglish521.com）力哥爱英语-https://ienglish521.com/2497.html
