I met 273 start-up founders last year. And each one was looking for money. As a tech investor, my goal was to sort through everyone that I met and make a quick determination about which ones had the potential to make something really big.
去年，我同273位 初创公司创始人见过面。他们所有人都在筹款。作为一个技术投资人， 我的任务是将 每一个我见过的人分类， 然后迅决定判断出 哪些人具备做大事的潜力。
But what makes a great founder? This is a question I ask myself daily. Some venture capitalists place bets based on a founder's previous background. Did they go to an Ivy League school? Have they worked at a blue-chip company? Have they built out a big vision before? Effectively, how smart is this person?
但是，是什么成就了 一位优秀的创业者？这是一个我每天都要问自己的问题。一些风险投资人会 根据创业者的履历背景下注。他们是否毕业于藤校？他们是否在蓝筹公司工作过？他们之前是否就构建过远大愿景？实际上就是说，这个人有多聪明？
Other VCs asses a founder's emotional quotient, or EQ. How well will this person build teams and build rapport across customers and clients?
I have a different methodology to assess start-up founders, though, and it's not complicated. I look for signs of one specific trait. Not IQ, not EQ. It's adaptability: how well a person reacts to the inevitability of change, and lots of it. That's the single most important determinant for me. I subscribe to the belief that adaptability itself is a form of intelligence, and our adaptability quotient, or AQ, is something that can be measured, tested and improved.
而我有一套与众不同的 评估创业者的方法， 并且方法并不复杂。我找寻某个特定品质的迹象。不是智商，也不是情商。而是适应能力：一个人在面对不可避免的 改变时反应如何， 尤其是当有大量变动时。这就是那个对我来说 唯一且最重要的决定性因素。我坚信， 适应能力本身就是 一种智商的表现形式， 而我们的适应能力系数，即AQ， 是可以被测量、测试和提高的。
AQ isn't just useful for start-up founders, however. I think it's increasingly important for all of us. Because the world is speeding up. We know that the rate of technological change is accelerating, which is forcing our brains to react. Whether you're navigating changing job conditions brought on by automation, shifting geopolitics in a more globalized world, or simply changing family dynamics and personal relationships. Each of us, as individuals, groups, corporations and even governments are being forced to grapple with more change than ever before in human history.
适应能力不仅仅 对公司创始人来说有用， 我觉得它对我们 所有人来说都越来越重要。因为这个世界正在加速变化。众所周知科技在加速发展， 这迫使我们的大脑做出反应。不论你是在找寻办法 应对因为自动化 带来的工作条件的改变， 因为全球化所带来的地缘政治的变迁， 或者单纯是为了 改变家庭氛围及人际关系。我们每一个人，作为个人、群体、 公司、甚至是政府， 正被迫与空前的 大量改变做抗争。
So, how do we assess our adaptability? I use three tricks when meeting with founders. Here's the first. Think back to your most recent job interview. What kind of questions were you asked? Probably some variation of, "Tell me about a time when," right? Instead, to interview for adaptability, I like to ask "what if" questions. What if your main revenue stream were to dry up overnight? What if a heat wave prevented every single customer from being able to visit your store? Asking "what if," instead of asking about the past, forces the brain to simulate. To picture multiple possible versions of the future. The strength of that vision, as well as how many distinct scenarios someone can conjure, tells me a lot.
那么，我们该如何 评估自己的适应能力呢？在与创业者见面时， 我会使用三种诀窍。下面是第一条。回想你最近的一次工作面试经历。你被问到了哪种问题？大概是类似于 “告诉我某个当你……时的经历，” 对吧？取而代之，在针对适应能力的面试中， 我喜欢询问 “如果……会怎样” 的问题。如果你的主营业务收入 一夜之间蒸发了，你会怎么办？如果热浪致使所有客户 都不能光顾你的店铺了，你会怎么做？问询 “如果……怎么办” 而非过去， 迫使我们的大脑进行模拟。来勾画出关于未来的多种可能版本。预见的能力， 以及有多少不同的情况能被预想出来， 能告诉我很多信息。
Practicing simulations is a sort of safe testing ground for improving adaptability. Instead of testing how you take in and retain information, like an IQ test might, it tests how you manipulate information, given a constraint, in order to achieve a specific goal.
练习情景模拟对于提高适应能力来说 是一种安全的试验场， 跟测试你领会和 记住信息的能力如何， 比如智商测试不同， 它测试的是你处理信息， 当被给出一些限制时， 以达到某个特定目标的能力。
The second trick that I use to assess adaptability in founders is to look for signs of unlearning. Active unlearners seek to challenge what they presume to already know, and instead, override that data with new information. Kind of like a computer running a disk cleanup. Take the example of Destin Sandlin, who programed his bicycle to turn left when he steered it right and vice versa. He called this his Backwards Brain Bike, and it took him nearly eight months just to learn how to ride it kind of, sort of normally. The fact that Destin was able to unlearn his regular bike in favor of a new one, though, signals something awesome about our adaptability. It's not fixed. Instead, each of us has the capacity to improve it, through dedication and hard work.
我用来评估创业者 适应能力的第二种方法， 是寻找他们 “反学习” 的迹象。活跃的的反学习者力图 挑战他们默认已知的东西， 并用新信息将（旧）数据推翻， 与格式化电脑磁盘相类似。以德斯坦·桑德林为例， 他设计当将车把转向右侧时， 自行车会向左转向， 反之亦然。他将其称为逆脑力自行车。而仅仅为了学会 如何较为正常地骑行它， 他就花了将近八个月。德斯坦能反学习骑行常规自行车， 以新代旧， 标志着一些关于 我们的适应性的优点。它不是一成不变的。相反，我们每个人都有能力 通过勤奋付出与不懈努力去提高它。
On the last page of Gandhi's autobiography, he wrote, "I must reduce myself to zero." At many points in his very full life, he was still seeking to return to a beginner's mindset, to zero. To unlearn. In this way, I think it's pretty safe to say Gandhi had a high AQ score.
在甘地自传的最后一页，他写道， “我必须让自己归零。” 在他无比充实的一生中的很多时刻， 他仍力图回归初心，归零。回归未知状态。因此，我可以很自信的说， 那就是甘地有着很强的适应能力。
The third and final trick that I use to assess a founder's adaptability is to look for people who infuse exploration into their life and their business. There's a sort of natural tension between exploration and exploitation. And collectively, all of us tend to overvalue exploitation. Here's what I mean. In the year 2000, a man finagled his way into a meeting with John Antioco, the CEO of Blockbuster, and proposed a partnership to manage Blockbuster's fledgling online business. The CEO John laughed him out of the room, saying, "I have millions of existing customers and thousands of successful retail stores. I really need to focus on the money."
第三条，也是最后一条 我用来衡量创业者适应力的绝招是， 寻找那些将探索融入 生活和事业的人。在探索与开发间有一种自然张力。而整体来看， 我们都倾向于过分重视开发。举例来说， 2000年时， 一个人在同約翰．安提奧， 即百视达的首席执行官开会时 加入了自己的想法， 并提议一同合作 管理百视达刚成立的在线业务。首席执行官约翰笑着 把他赶出了房间，并说， “我拥有上百万的已有客户， 以及成千上万个运营良好的零售店。我真正需要关注的是钱。”
The other man in the meeting, however, turned out to be Reed Hastings, the CEO of Netflix. In 2018, Netflix brought in 15.8 billion dollars, while Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy in 2010, directly 10 years after that meeting. The Blockbuster CEO was too focused on exploiting his already successful business model, so much so that he couldn't see around the next corner. In that way, his previous success became the enemy of his adaptability potential.
而那个参会的男人， 事后得知是里德·哈斯廷斯， 网飞公司的首席执行官。2018年，网飞公司收益158亿美元， 而百视达却于2010年登记破产， 这距离那场会议，正好过去十年。百视达的首席执行官， 过于重视开发 他已取得成功的商业模型， 以至于不能看到下一个“转角“。这样一来，他之前的成功 成为了他适应性潜能的敌人。
For the founders that I work with, I frame exploration as a state of constant seeking. To never fall too far in love with your wins but rather continue to proactively seek out what might kill you next. When I first started exploring adaptability, the thing I found most exciting is that we can improve it. Each of us has the capacity to become more adaptable. But think of it like a muscle: it's got to be exercised. And don't get discouraged if it takes a while. Remember Destin Sandlin? It took him eight months just to learn how to ride a bike.
对于那些我合作过的创业者来说， 我将探索定义为 一种持续寻找的状态。永远不要过度沉溺于胜利的喜悦中， 而是继续积极地寻找那些 接下来有可能置你于死地的东西。当我第一次探索适应能力时， 我所发现的最令人兴奋的一点 是我们可以提高它。我们每个人都可以成为 更具适应能力的自己。可以将适应力想象成肌肉：它需要经常得到锻炼， 不要因这个过程 花费的时间太长而泄气。还记得德斯坦·桑德林吗？他花了整整八个月的时间 才学会如何去骑车。
Over time, using the tricks that I use on founders -- asking "what if" questions, actively unlearning and prioritizing exploration over exploitation can put you in the driver's seat -- so that the next time something big changes, you're already prepared.
日积月累，使用 我用在创业者上的方法—— 多问“如何……怎么办”， 积极回归未知状态， 并将探索看得比开发更为重要， 就能将你置于主导位置—— 以便下次重大改变发生时， 你已准备就绪。
We're entering a future where IQ and EQ both matter way less than how fast you're able to adapt. So I hope that these tools help you to raise your own AQ.
我们正面向一个智商和情商 都远不如适应速度重要的未来。所以我希望这些工具 能帮助你提高自己的适应能力。