反脆弱 | Antifragile (Incerto #4) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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反脆弱 | Antifragile (Incerto #4) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

From the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost philosophers of our time, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a book on how some systems actually benefit from disorder.

In The Black Swan Taleb outlined a problem; in Antifragile he offers a definitive solution: how to gain from disorder and chaos while being protected from fragilities and adverse events. For what he calls the "antifragile" is one step beyond robust, as it benefits from adversity, uncertainty and stressors, just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension.

Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, and proposing that things be built in an antifragile manner. Extremely ambitious and multidisciplinary, Antifragile provides a blueprint for how to behave-and thrive-in a world we don't understand and which is too uncertain for us to even try to understand. He who is not antifragile will perish. Why is the city state better than the nation state, why is debt bad for you, and why is almost everything modern bound to fail? The book covers innovation, health, biology, medicine, life decisions, politics, foreign policy, urban planning, war, personal finance, and economic systems. Throughout, the voice and recipes of the ancient wisdom from Phoenician, Roman, Greek, and Medieval sources are heard loud and clear.

尼采有句名言:“杀不死我的,只会让我更坚强。”正如人体骨骼在负重和压力下反而会越发强壮,谣言和暴动在遏制和镇压下反而愈演愈烈一样,我们生活中的许许多多事物也会从压力、混乱、波动和动荡中受益。塔勒布在《反脆弱》一书中所定义的“反脆弱性”,是那些不仅能从混乱和波动中受益,而且需要这种混乱和波动才能维持生存和实现繁荣的事物的特性。

在《黑天鹅》中,塔勒布向我们揭示了极其罕见而不可预测的事件如何潜伏在世间万物的背后,而在《反脆弱》中,他极力为不确定性正名,让我们看到它有益的一面,甚至证明其存在的必要性,他还建议我们以反脆弱性的方式构建事物。值得注意的是,反脆弱性是一个超越复原力和强韧性的概念。复原力只是事物抵御冲击,并在重创后复原的能力;而反脆弱性则进一步超越了复原力,让事物在压力下逆势生长、蒸蒸日上。

此外,反脆弱性能对预测错误免疫,也可以免受有害事件的影响。为什么城邦制国家优于集权制国家?为什么负债会置你于不利境地?为什么我们所说的“效率”并未给我们带来真正的效率?为什么政府行动和社会政策总是保护强者而伤害弱者?为什么你应该在开始工作前就写好辞职信?为什么“泰坦尼克”号的沉没挽救了更多人的生命?本书涵盖了诸多议题,包括试错法、生活中的决策、政治、城市规划、战争、个人理财、经济体系和医学领域。除了布鲁克林的胖子托尼的市井智慧,源自古罗马、古希腊、闪米特与中世纪的声音和经验也如历史遗珠般贯穿全文,闪烁着令人深省的智慧之光。 本书是引导我们在黑天鹅的世界中持续生存下去的行动指南。

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